Sunday, September 13, 2009

Winter is Coming

Karl Denninger continues his treatise on the current Economy, and I have a hint for you, it's not "Green Shoots".

We have been given a gift - a six month (up to now) to couple-of-year (maybe) time frame in which to recognize the truth, break up these behemoth organizations, force the bad debt into the open, default it, make depositors whole and in doing so shrink place our economy on a trajectory where debt-to-gdp will shrink to a sustainable level.

If we fail to do so before the rope runs out - and it will - our economy will collapse. The Federal Government will be forced to contract spending to what it can raise via taxes in the current economic climate - about half of what it spends now. Given our budget and where we spend money, this means a near-complete repudiation of Social Security and Medicare, a 50% or more cut to the military budget, and an elimination of all other federal programs. Unemployment will rocket to north of 25%. Our "just in time" economy will break down and there will be widespread, perhaps even critical, shortages of necessities - food and fuel.

Read the rest here, and while you're at it, take a look at what else he has to say.

Don't believe Karl? How about a Nobel Prize winning Economist.

Stiglitz, former chief economist at the World Bank and member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said the world economy is “far from being out of the woods” even if it has pulled back from the precipice it teetered on after the collapse of Lehman.

“We’re going into an extended period of weak economy, of economic malaise,” Stiglitz said. The U.S. will “grow but not enough to offset the increase in the population,” he said, adding that “if workers do not have income, it’s very hard to see how the U.S. will generate the demand that the world economy needs.”

The Federal Reserve faces a “quandary” in ending its monetary stimulus programs because doing so may drive up the cost of borrowing for the U.S. government, he said.

“The question then is who is going to finance the U.S. government,” Stiglitz said.

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